Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fortuna Regensburg vs Eintracht Münchberg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Fortuna Regensburg
Fortuna Regensburg
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Eintracht Münchberg
Eintracht Münchberg
M. Baldauf 90+1', 17'
L. Schmitt 52'
D. Wich 14'
3/15/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 25Projekt 29 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Fortuna Regensburg64%
×Draw18%
Eintracht Münchberg18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Regensburg
2.64
Eintracht Münchberg
1.37

Fortuna Regensburg creates 93% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Fortuna Regensburg
2.57
Eintracht Münchberg
0.94

allows per match

Fortuna Regensburg
1.80
Eintracht Münchberg
2.71

finishing

Fortuna Regensburg+0.00on par
Eintracht Münchberg+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Regensburg ↓

Eintracht Münchberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Fortuna Regensburg or draw
82%
Fortuna Regensburg or Eintracht Münchberg
82%
Draw or Eintracht Münchberg
36%

Winning margin

Fortuna Regensburg wins by 2+
43%
Eintracht Münchberg wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fortuna Regensburg 1+ goals
93%
Fortuna Regensburg 2+ goals
74%
Fortuna Regensburg 3+ goals
48%
Eintracht Münchberg 1+ goals
75%
Eintracht Münchberg 2+ goals
40%
Eintracht Münchberg 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Regensburg (draw refunded)
78%
Eintracht Münchberg (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Regensburg at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches

Eintracht Münchberg away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Regensburg attack 2.57 + Eintracht Münchberg defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.64

Eintracht Münchberg attack 0.94 + Fortuna Regensburg defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Fortuna Regensburg scores more
64%
level
18%
Eintracht Münchberg scores more
18%

Fortuna Regensburg at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Fortuna Regensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
D. Wich
17'
M. Baldauf
52'
L. Schmitt
79'
T. Zollner
79'
T. Zollner
90+1'
M. Baldauf

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortuna Regensburg vs Eintracht Münchberg

Fortuna Regensburg beat Eintracht Münchberg 3-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on March 15, 2025.

Goals: D. Wich (14'), M. Baldauf (17', 90+1'), L. Schmitt (52').

The match was played at Projekt 29 Arena in Regensburg.