Eintracht Münchberg 0–5 Fortuna Regensburg

Eintracht Münchberg

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Fortuna Regensburg

F. Ziegler 90+1'

L. da Silva Freundorfer 80', 58'

J. Sarajlic 70'

T. Zollner 36'

8/24/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 8FORTUNA-ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Eintracht Münchberg27%

×Draw22%

Fortuna Regensburg51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht MünchbergExpected goals in this matchFortuna Regensburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.91

Eintracht Münchberg

1.34

Fortuna Regensburg

1.91

Fortuna Regensburg creates 43% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

0.82

creates per match

1.63

2.18

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Eintracht Münchberg

0.82

Fortuna Regensburg

1.63

allows per match

Eintracht Münchberg

2.18

Fortuna Regensburg

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Münchberg+0.00on par

Fortuna Regensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Münchberg ↓

Fortuna Regensburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Eintracht Münchberg or draw

49%

Eintracht Münchberg or Fortuna Regensburg

78%

Draw or Fortuna Regensburg

73%

Winning margin

Eintracht Münchberg wins by 2+

12%

Fortuna Regensburg wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Eintracht Münchberg 1+ goals

74%

Eintracht Münchberg 2+ goals

39%

Eintracht Münchberg 3+ goals

15%

Fortuna Regensburg 1+ goals

85%

Fortuna Regensburg 2+ goals

57%

Fortuna Regensburg 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Münchberg (draw refunded)

35%

Fortuna Regensburg (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Münchberg at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

Fortuna Regensburg away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.86 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Münchberg attack 0.82 + Fortuna Regensburg defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.34

Fortuna Regensburg attack 1.63 + Eintracht Münchberg defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Eintracht Münchberg scores more

27%

level

22%

Fortuna Regensburg scores more

51%

Fortuna Regensburg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fortuna Regensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

T. Zollner

58'

L. da Silva Freundorfer

70'

J. Sarajlic

80'

L. da Silva Freundorfer

90+1'

F. Ziegler

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff