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Fortuna Regensburg vs Coburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Fortuna Regensburg
Fortuna Regensburg
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Coburg
Coburg
4/24/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 31Projekt 29 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Fortuna Regensburg55%
×Draw19%
Coburg26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Regensburg
2.46
Coburg
1.67

Fortuna Regensburg creates 47% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

creates per match

Fortuna Regensburg
2.57
Coburg
1.53

allows per match

Fortuna Regensburg
1.80
Coburg
2.35

finishing

Fortuna Regensburg+0.00on par
Coburg+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Regensburg ↓

Coburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Fortuna Regensburg or draw
74%
Fortuna Regensburg or Coburg
81%
Draw or Coburg
45%

Winning margin

Fortuna Regensburg wins by 2+
34%
Coburg wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fortuna Regensburg 1+ goals
91%
Fortuna Regensburg 2+ goals
70%
Fortuna Regensburg 3+ goals
44%
Coburg 1+ goals
81%
Coburg 2+ goals
50%
Coburg 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Regensburg (draw refunded)
68%
Coburg (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Regensburg at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches

Coburg away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Regensburg attack 2.57 + Coburg defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.46

Coburg attack 1.53 + Fortuna Regensburg defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Fortuna Regensburg scores more
55%
level
19%
Coburg scores more
26%

Fortuna Regensburg at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Fortuna Regensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Fortuna Regensburg 4–2 Coburg

Fortuna Regensburg beat Coburg 4-2 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on April 24, 2026.

The match was played at Projekt 29 Arena in Regensburg.