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Coburg vs Fortuna Regensburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Coburg
Coburg
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Fortuna Regensburg
Fortuna Regensburg
2/24/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 25Kunstrasenplatz FC Coburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Coburg29%
×Draw21%
Fortuna Regensburg50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coburg
1.62
Fortuna Regensburg
2.14

Fortuna Regensburg creates 32% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

creates per match

Coburg
1.38
Fortuna Regensburg
1.63

allows per match

Coburg
2.65
Fortuna Regensburg
1.86

finishing

Coburg+0.00on par
Fortuna Regensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coburg ↓

Fortuna Regensburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Coburg or draw
50%
Coburg or Fortuna Regensburg
79%
Draw or Fortuna Regensburg
71%

Winning margin

Coburg wins by 2+
14%
Fortuna Regensburg wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Coburg 1+ goals
80%
Coburg 2+ goals
48%
Coburg 3+ goals
22%
Fortuna Regensburg 1+ goals
88%
Fortuna Regensburg 2+ goals
63%
Fortuna Regensburg 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Coburg (draw refunded)
37%
Fortuna Regensburg (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.65 · 34 matches

Fortuna Regensburg away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.86 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coburg attack 1.38 + Fortuna Regensburg defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.62

Fortuna Regensburg attack 1.63 + Coburg defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Coburg scores more
29%
level
21%
Fortuna Regensburg scores more
50%

Fortuna Regensburg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fortuna Regensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Coburg 3–3 Fortuna Regensburg

Coburg and Fortuna Regensburg drew 3-3 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz FC Coburg in Coburg.