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Fortuna Regensburg vs ATSV Erlangen — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Fortuna Regensburg
Fortuna Regensburg
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
ATSV Erlangen
ATSV Erlangen
10/5/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 15Projekt 29 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Fortuna Regensburg52%
×Draw21%
ATSV Erlangen27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Regensburg
2.13
ATSV Erlangen
1.48

Fortuna Regensburg creates 44% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

creates per match

Fortuna Regensburg
2.57
ATSV Erlangen
1.15

allows per match

Fortuna Regensburg
1.80
ATSV Erlangen
1.69

finishing

Fortuna Regensburg+0.00on par
ATSV Erlangen+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Regensburg ↓

ATSV Erlangen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Fortuna Regensburg or draw
73%
Fortuna Regensburg or ATSV Erlangen
79%
Draw or ATSV Erlangen
48%

Winning margin

Fortuna Regensburg wins by 2+
31%
ATSV Erlangen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fortuna Regensburg 1+ goals
88%
Fortuna Regensburg 2+ goals
63%
Fortuna Regensburg 3+ goals
35%
ATSV Erlangen 1+ goals
77%
ATSV Erlangen 2+ goals
43%
ATSV Erlangen 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Regensburg (draw refunded)
66%
ATSV Erlangen (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Regensburg at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches

ATSV Erlangen away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Regensburg attack 2.57 + ATSV Erlangen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.13

ATSV Erlangen attack 1.15 + Fortuna Regensburg defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fortuna Regensburg scores more
52%
level
21%
ATSV Erlangen scores more
27%

Fortuna Regensburg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fortuna Regensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Fortuna Regensburg 5–0 ATSV Erlangen

Fortuna Regensburg beat ATSV Erlangen 5-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Projekt 29 Arena in Regensburg.