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ATSV Erlangen vs Fortuna Regensburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

ATSV Erlangen
ATSV Erlangen
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fortuna Regensburg
Fortuna Regensburg
8/29/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 8Sportanlage Erlangen Paul-Gossen-Strasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

ATSV Erlangen45%
×Draw23%
Fortuna Regensburg32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ATSV Erlangen
1.82
Fortuna Regensburg
1.50

ATSV Erlangen creates 21% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

creates per match

ATSV Erlangen
1.78
Fortuna Regensburg
1.63

allows per match

ATSV Erlangen
1.37
Fortuna Regensburg
1.86

finishing

ATSV Erlangen+0.00on par
Fortuna Regensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ATSV Erlangen ↓

Fortuna Regensburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

ATSV Erlangen or draw
68%
ATSV Erlangen or Fortuna Regensburg
77%
Draw or Fortuna Regensburg
55%

Winning margin

ATSV Erlangen wins by 2+
24%
Fortuna Regensburg wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

ATSV Erlangen 1+ goals
84%
ATSV Erlangen 2+ goals
54%
ATSV Erlangen 3+ goals
27%
Fortuna Regensburg 1+ goals
78%
Fortuna Regensburg 2+ goals
44%
Fortuna Regensburg 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

ATSV Erlangen (draw refunded)
59%
Fortuna Regensburg (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ATSV Erlangen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

Fortuna Regensburg away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.86 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ATSV Erlangen attack 1.78 + Fortuna Regensburg defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.82

Fortuna Regensburg attack 1.63 + ATSV Erlangen defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

ATSV Erlangen scores more
45%
level
23%
Fortuna Regensburg scores more
32%

ATSV Erlangen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "ATSV Erlangen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: ATSV Erlangen 2–0 Fortuna Regensburg

ATSV Erlangen beat Fortuna Regensburg 2-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on August 29, 2025.

The match was played at Sportanlage Erlangen Paul-Gossen-Strasse in Erlangen.