Fortuna Regensburg 2–3 1. SC Feucht: Result & Stats

Fortuna Regensburg

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

1. SC Feucht

11/11/2023

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 21Sportpark am Brandlberg Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Fortuna Regensburg59%

×Draw18%

1. SC Feucht23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna RegensburgExpected goals in this match1. SC Feucht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.60

1.58

Fortuna Regensburg

2.60

1. SC Feucht

1.58

Fortuna Regensburg creates 65% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 35 away

2.57

creates per match

1.37

1.80

allows per match

2.63

creates per match

Fortuna Regensburg

2.57

1. SC Feucht

1.37

allows per match

Fortuna Regensburg

1.80

1. SC Feucht

2.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Regensburg+0.00on par

1. SC Feucht+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Regensburg ↓

1. SC Feucht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Fortuna Regensburg or draw

77%

Fortuna Regensburg or 1. SC Feucht

82%

Draw or 1. SC Feucht

41%

Winning margin

Fortuna Regensburg wins by 2+

39%

1. SC Feucht wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fortuna Regensburg 1+ goals

92%

Fortuna Regensburg 2+ goals

73%

Fortuna Regensburg 3+ goals

47%

1. SC Feucht 1+ goals

79%

1. SC Feucht 2+ goals

47%

1. SC Feucht 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Regensburg (draw refunded)

72%

1. SC Feucht (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Regensburg at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches

1. SC Feucht away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.63 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Regensburg attack 2.57 + 1. SC Feucht defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.60

1. SC Feucht attack 1.37 + Fortuna Regensburg defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Fortuna Regensburg scores more

59%

level

18%

1. SC Feucht scores more

23%

Fortuna Regensburg at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Fortuna Regensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff