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1. SC Feucht vs Fortuna Regensburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

1. SC Feucht
1. SC Feucht
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fortuna Regensburg
Fortuna Regensburg
7/26/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 2Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

1. SC Feucht27%
×Draw21%
Fortuna Regensburg52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. SC Feucht
1.52
Fortuna Regensburg
2.17

Fortuna Regensburg creates 43% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 51 away

creates per match

1. SC Feucht
1.17
Fortuna Regensburg
1.63

allows per match

1. SC Feucht
2.71
Fortuna Regensburg
1.86

finishing

1. SC Feucht+0.00on par
Fortuna Regensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. SC Feucht ↓

Fortuna Regensburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

1. SC Feucht or draw
48%
1. SC Feucht or Fortuna Regensburg
79%
Draw or Fortuna Regensburg
73%

Winning margin

1. SC Feucht wins by 2+
12%
Fortuna Regensburg wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

1. SC Feucht 1+ goals
78%
1. SC Feucht 2+ goals
45%
1. SC Feucht 3+ goals
20%
Fortuna Regensburg 1+ goals
89%
Fortuna Regensburg 2+ goals
64%
Fortuna Regensburg 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

1. SC Feucht (draw refunded)
34%
Fortuna Regensburg (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. SC Feucht at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.71 · 35 matches

Fortuna Regensburg away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.86 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. SC Feucht attack 1.17 + Fortuna Regensburg defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.52

Fortuna Regensburg attack 1.63 + 1. SC Feucht defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

1. SC Feucht scores more
27%
level
21%
Fortuna Regensburg scores more
52%

Fortuna Regensburg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fortuna Regensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: 1. SC Feucht 0–0 Fortuna Regensburg

1. SC Feucht and Fortuna Regensburg drew 0-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on July 26, 2023.

The match was played at Waldstadion in Feucht.