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Fortuna Mfou vs Fauve Azur Elite — Elite One 2019

Fortuna Mfou
Fortuna Mfou
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fauve Azur Elite
Fauve Azur Elite
3/2/2025Elite OneElite One · Round 14Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fortuna Mfou42%
×Draw30%
Fauve Azur Elite29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Mfou
1.18
Fauve Azur Elite
0.92

Fortuna Mfou creates 28% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 15 away

creates per match

Fortuna Mfou
1.28
Fauve Azur Elite
0.60

allows per match

Fortuna Mfou
1.23
Fauve Azur Elite
1.07

finishing

Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par
Fauve Azur Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Mfou ↓

Fauve Azur Elite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Fortuna Mfou or draw
71%
Fortuna Mfou or Fauve Azur Elite
70%
Draw or Fauve Azur Elite
58%

Winning margin

Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+
18%
Fauve Azur Elite wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals
69%
Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals
33%
Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals
12%
Fauve Azur Elite 1+ goals
60%
Fauve Azur Elite 2+ goals
23%
Fauve Azur Elite 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)
59%
Fauve Azur Elite (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Mfou at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.23 · 97 matches

Fauve Azur Elite away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.28 + Fauve Azur Elite defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18

Fauve Azur Elite attack 0.60 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fortuna Mfou scores more
42%
level
30%
Fauve Azur Elite scores more
29%

Fortuna Mfou at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fortuna Mfou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Fortuna Mfou 0–1 Fauve Azur Elite

Fauve Azur Elite beat Fortuna Mfou 1-0 in Elite One on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport in Yaoundé.