Fauve Azur Elite 1–1 Fortuna Mfou: Result & Stats

Fauve Azur Elite

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Fortuna Mfou

6/22/2025

Elite One · Round 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fauve Azur Elite47%

×Draw28%

Fortuna Mfou25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fauve Azur EliteExpected goals in this matchFortuna Mfou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.91

Fauve Azur Elite

1.36

Fortuna Mfou

0.91

Fauve Azur Elite creates 49% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 96 away

1.33

creates per match

1.09

0.73

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Fauve Azur Elite

1.33

Fortuna Mfou

1.09

allows per match

Fauve Azur Elite

0.73

Fortuna Mfou

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fauve Azur Elite+0.00on par

Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fauve Azur Elite ↓

Fortuna Mfou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Fauve Azur Elite or draw

75%

Fauve Azur Elite or Fortuna Mfou

72%

Draw or Fortuna Mfou

53%

Winning margin

Fauve Azur Elite wins by 2+

22%

Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Fauve Azur Elite 1+ goals

74%

Fauve Azur Elite 2+ goals

39%

Fauve Azur Elite 3+ goals

16%

Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals

60%

Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals

23%

Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Fauve Azur Elite (draw refunded)

65%

Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fauve Azur Elite at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Fortuna Mfou away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.39 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fauve Azur Elite attack 1.33 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.36

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.09 + Fauve Azur Elite defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fauve Azur Elite scores more

47%

level

28%

Fortuna Mfou scores more

25%

Fauve Azur Elite at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fauve Azur Elite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff