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Fortuna Mfou vs Cotonsport — Elite One 2019

Fortuna Mfou
Fortuna Mfou
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cotonsport
Cotonsport
A. Boris 18'
3/30/2025Elite OneElite One · Round 17Stade de Ngoa Ekélé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Fortuna Mfou33%
×Draw29%
Cotonsport38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Mfou
1.08
Cotonsport
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 100 away

creates per match

Fortuna Mfou
1.28
Cotonsport
1.12

allows per match

Fortuna Mfou
1.23
Cotonsport
0.88

finishing

Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par
Cotonsport+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Mfou ↓

Cotonsport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fortuna Mfou or draw
62%
Fortuna Mfou or Cotonsport
71%
Draw or Cotonsport
67%

Winning margin

Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+
13%
Cotonsport wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals
66%
Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals
29%
Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals
10%
Cotonsport 1+ goals
69%
Cotonsport 2+ goals
33%
Cotonsport 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)
47%
Cotonsport (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Mfou at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.23 · 97 matches

Cotonsport away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.88 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.28 + Cotonsport defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.08

Cotonsport attack 1.12 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fortuna Mfou scores more
33%
level
29%
Cotonsport scores more
38%

Cotonsport at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cotonsport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
A. Boris

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Fortuna Mfou 1–0 Cotonsport

Fortuna Mfou beat Cotonsport 1-0 in Elite One on March 30, 2025.

Goals: A. Boris (18').

The match was played at Stade de Ngoa Ekélé in Yaoundé.