Cotonsport 2–1 Fortuna Mfou: Result & Stats

Cotonsport

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Fortuna Mfou

J. Chamdjou 24'

C. Yougouda 3'

A. Mfoumou 87' (pen)

12/11/2024

Elite One · Round 2Stade Annexe Roumdé Adjia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Cotonsport54%

×Draw25%

Fortuna Mfou21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CotonsportExpected goals in this matchFortuna Mfou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.87

Cotonsport

1.59

Fortuna Mfou

0.87

Cotonsport creates 83% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 96 away

1.80

creates per match

1.09

0.65

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Cotonsport

1.80

Fortuna Mfou

1.09

allows per match

Cotonsport

0.65

Fortuna Mfou

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cotonsport+0.00on par

Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cotonsport ↓

Fortuna Mfou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cotonsport or draw

79%

Cotonsport or Fortuna Mfou

75%

Draw or Fortuna Mfou

46%

Winning margin

Cotonsport wins by 2+

29%

Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cotonsport 1+ goals

80%

Cotonsport 2+ goals

47%

Cotonsport 3+ goals

21%

Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals

58%

Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals

22%

Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Cotonsport (draw refunded)

73%

Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cotonsport at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.65 · 92 matches

Fortuna Mfou away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.39 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cotonsport attack 1.80 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.59

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.09 + Cotonsport defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cotonsport scores more

54%

level

25%

Fortuna Mfou scores more

21%

Cotonsport at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cotonsport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

C. Yougouda

24'

J. Chamdjou

87'

A. MfoumouPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff