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Fortuna Mfou vs Colombe — Elite One 2019

Fortuna Mfou
Fortuna Mfou
FT
1 – 2
Colombe
Colombe
2/9/2025Elite OneElite One · Round 11Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Fortuna Mfou33%
×Draw28%
Colombe39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Mfou
1.10
Colombe
1.21

Colombe creates 10% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 92 away

creates per match

Fortuna Mfou
1.28
Colombe
1.18

allows per match

Fortuna Mfou
1.23
Colombe
0.93

finishing

Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par
Colombe+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Mfou ↓

Colombe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fortuna Mfou or draw
61%
Fortuna Mfou or Colombe
72%
Draw or Colombe
67%

Winning margin

Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+
13%
Colombe wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals
67%
Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals
30%
Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals
10%
Colombe 1+ goals
70%
Colombe 2+ goals
34%
Colombe 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)
46%
Colombe (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Mfou at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.23 · 97 matches

Colombe away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.28 + Colombe defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.10

Colombe attack 1.18 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fortuna Mfou scores more
33%
level
28%
Colombe scores more
39%

Colombe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Colombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Fortuna Mfou 1–2 Colombe

Colombe beat Fortuna Mfou 2-1 in Elite One on February 9, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport in Yaoundé.