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Colombe vs Fortuna Mfou — Elite One 2019

Colombe
Colombe
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fortuna Mfou
Fortuna Mfou
J. Mbock 61'
2/8/2026Elite OneElite One · Round 4Military Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Colombe48%
×Draw27%
Fortuna Mfou25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colombe
1.40
Fortuna Mfou
0.94

Colombe creates 49% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 96 away

creates per match

Colombe
1.41
Fortuna Mfou
1.09

allows per match

Colombe
0.78
Fortuna Mfou
1.39

finishing

Colombe+0.00on par
Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colombe ↓

Fortuna Mfou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Colombe or draw
75%
Colombe or Fortuna Mfou
73%
Draw or Fortuna Mfou
52%

Winning margin

Colombe wins by 2+
23%
Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Colombe 1+ goals
75%
Colombe 2+ goals
41%
Colombe 3+ goals
17%
Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals
61%
Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals
24%
Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Colombe (draw refunded)
65%
Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colombe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.78 · 91 matches

Fortuna Mfou away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.39 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colombe attack 1.41 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.09 + Colombe defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Colombe scores more
48%
level
27%
Fortuna Mfou scores more
25%

Colombe at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Colombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'
J. Mbock

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colombe vs Fortuna Mfou

Fortuna Mfou beat Colombe 1-0 in Elite One on February 8, 2026.

Goals: J. Mbock (61').

The match was played at Military Stadium.