Fortuna Mfou 0–2 Aigle Royal de Moungo

Fortuna Mfou

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Aigle Royal de Moungo

J. Nga 23' (pen)

F. Ukagwu 8'

6/4/2026

Elite One · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Fortuna Mfou42%

×Draw27%

Aigle Royal de Moungo31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna MfouExpected goals in this matchAigle Royal de Moungo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.11

Fortuna Mfou

1.34

Aigle Royal de Moungo

1.11

Fortuna Mfou creates 21% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 27 away

1.28

creates per match

1.00

1.23

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Fortuna Mfou

1.28

Aigle Royal de Moungo

1.00

allows per match

Fortuna Mfou

1.23

Aigle Royal de Moungo

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par

Aigle Royal de Moungo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Mfou ↓

Aigle Royal de Moungo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Fortuna Mfou or draw

69%

Fortuna Mfou or Aigle Royal de Moungo

73%

Draw or Aigle Royal de Moungo

58%

Winning margin

Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+

19%

Aigle Royal de Moungo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals

74%

Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals

39%

Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals

15%

Aigle Royal de Moungo 1+ goals

67%

Aigle Royal de Moungo 2+ goals

30%

Aigle Royal de Moungo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)

58%

Aigle Royal de Moungo (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Mfou at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.23 · 97 matches

Aigle Royal de Moungo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.28 + Aigle Royal de Moungo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.34

Aigle Royal de Moungo attack 1.00 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fortuna Mfou scores more

42%

level

27%

Aigle Royal de Moungo scores more

31%

Fortuna Mfou at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fortuna Mfou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

F. Ukagwu

23'

J. NgaPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff