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Aigle Royal de Moungo vs Fortuna Mfou — Elite One 2019

Aigle Royal de Moungo
Aigle Royal de Moungo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fortuna Mfou
Fortuna Mfou
5/10/2025Elite OneElite One · Round 23Stade Annexe 1 de Japoma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Aigle Royal de Moungo37%
×Draw29%
Fortuna Mfou34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aigle Royal de Moungo
1.14
Fortuna Mfou
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 96 away

creates per match

Aigle Royal de Moungo
0.89
Fortuna Mfou
1.09

allows per match

Aigle Royal de Moungo
1.07
Fortuna Mfou
1.39

finishing

Aigle Royal de Moungo+0.00on par
Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aigle Royal de Moungo ↓

Fortuna Mfou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Aigle Royal de Moungo or draw
66%
Aigle Royal de Moungo or Fortuna Mfou
71%
Draw or Fortuna Mfou
63%

Winning margin

Aigle Royal de Moungo wins by 2+
15%
Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Aigle Royal de Moungo 1+ goals
68%
Aigle Royal de Moungo 2+ goals
32%
Aigle Royal de Moungo 3+ goals
11%
Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals
66%
Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals
29%
Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Aigle Royal de Moungo (draw refunded)
52%
Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aigle Royal de Moungo at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

Fortuna Mfou away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.39 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aigle Royal de Moungo attack 0.89 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.14

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.09 + Aigle Royal de Moungo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Aigle Royal de Moungo scores more
37%
level
29%
Fortuna Mfou scores more
34%

Aigle Royal de Moungo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Aigle Royal de Moungo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Aigle Royal de Moungo 1–0 Fortuna Mfou

Aigle Royal de Moungo beat Fortuna Mfou 1-0 in Elite One on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Annexe 1 de Japoma in Douala.