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Fortuna Köln vs TSV Steinbach — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Fortuna Köln
Fortuna Köln
FT
2 – 1
TSV Steinbach
TSV Steinbach
1/28/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Südstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Fortuna Köln49%
×Draw20%
TSV Steinbach31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Köln
2.37
TSV Steinbach
1.86

Fortuna Köln creates 27% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Fortuna Köln
2.91
TSV Steinbach
2.09

allows per match

Fortuna Köln
1.64
TSV Steinbach
1.82

finishing

Fortuna Köln+0.00on par
TSV Steinbach+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Köln ↓

TSV Steinbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Fortuna Köln or draw
69%
Fortuna Köln or TSV Steinbach
80%
Draw or TSV Steinbach
51%

Winning margin

Fortuna Köln wins by 2+
30%
TSV Steinbach wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Fortuna Köln 1+ goals
91%
Fortuna Köln 2+ goals
68%
Fortuna Köln 3+ goals
42%
TSV Steinbach 1+ goals
84%
TSV Steinbach 2+ goals
55%
TSV Steinbach 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Köln (draw refunded)
62%
TSV Steinbach (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Köln at home — creates 2.91, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

TSV Steinbach away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Köln attack 2.91 + TSV Steinbach defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.37

TSV Steinbach attack 2.09 + Fortuna Köln defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fortuna Köln scores more
49%
level
20%
TSV Steinbach scores more
31%

Fortuna Köln at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fortuna Köln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortuna Köln vs TSV Steinbach

Fortuna Köln beat TSV Steinbach 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 28, 2024.

The match was played at Südstadion in Köln.