Fortuna Koln 1–3 TSV Steinbach: Result & Stats

Fortuna Koln

FT

1 – 3

TSV Steinbach

8/7/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Südstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Fortuna Koln49%

×Draw20%

TSV Steinbach31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna KolnExpected goals in this matchTSV Steinbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.86

Fortuna Koln

2.37

TSV Steinbach

1.86

Fortuna Koln creates 27% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

2.91

creates per match

2.09

1.64

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Fortuna Koln

2.91

TSV Steinbach

2.09

allows per match

Fortuna Koln

1.64

TSV Steinbach

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Koln+0.00on par

TSV Steinbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Koln ↓

TSV Steinbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Fortuna Koln or draw

69%

Fortuna Koln or TSV Steinbach

80%

Draw or TSV Steinbach

51%

Winning margin

Fortuna Koln wins by 2+

30%

TSV Steinbach wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Fortuna Koln 1+ goals

91%

Fortuna Koln 2+ goals

68%

Fortuna Koln 3+ goals

42%

TSV Steinbach 1+ goals

84%

TSV Steinbach 2+ goals

55%

TSV Steinbach 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Koln (draw refunded)

62%

TSV Steinbach (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Koln at home — creates 2.91, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

TSV Steinbach away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Koln attack 2.91 + TSV Steinbach defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.37

TSV Steinbach attack 2.09 + Fortuna Koln defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fortuna Koln scores more

49%

level

20%

TSV Steinbach scores more

31%

Fortuna Koln at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fortuna Koln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff