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Fortuna Köln vs Schalke 04 II — League #87 2026

Fortuna Köln
Fortuna Köln
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Schalke 04 II
Schalke 04 II
L. Majetic 75'
T. Bornemann 57'
A. Stanilewicz 37', 10'
A. Stanilewicz 84' (OG)
4/12/2026League #87League #87 · West - 29Südstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Fortuna Köln54%
×Draw22%
Schalke 04 II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Köln
1.95
Schalke 04 II
1.25

Fortuna Köln creates 56% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 28 away

creates per match

Fortuna Köln
1.90
Schalke 04 II
1.43

allows per match

Fortuna Köln
1.07
Schalke 04 II
2.00

finishing

Fortuna Köln+0.00on par
Schalke 04 II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Köln ↓

Schalke 04 II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Fortuna Köln or draw
76%
Fortuna Köln or Schalke 04 II
78%
Draw or Schalke 04 II
46%

Winning margin

Fortuna Köln wins by 2+
31%
Schalke 04 II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fortuna Köln 1+ goals
86%
Fortuna Köln 2+ goals
58%
Fortuna Köln 3+ goals
31%
Schalke 04 II 1+ goals
71%
Schalke 04 II 2+ goals
36%
Schalke 04 II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Köln (draw refunded)
69%
Schalke 04 II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Köln at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.07 · 29 matches

Schalke 04 II away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.00 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Köln attack 1.90 + Schalke 04 II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.95

Schalke 04 II attack 1.43 + Fortuna Köln defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Fortuna Köln scores more
54%
level
22%
Schalke 04 II scores more
24%

Fortuna Köln at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Fortuna Köln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
A. Stanilewicz
37'
A. Stanilewicz
57'
T. Bornemann
75'
L. Majetic
84'
A. StanilewiczOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #87: Fortuna Köln 4–1 Schalke 04 II

Fortuna Köln beat Schalke 04 II 4-1 in League #87 on April 12, 2026.

Goals: A. Stanilewicz (10', 37', 84' o.g.), T. Bornemann (57'), L. Majetic (75').

The match was played at Südstadion in Köln.