Fortuna Koln vs Schalke 04 II — League #87 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 28+ matches
Fortuna Koln54%
Schalke 04 II24%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Fortuna Koln creates 56% more chances
Season form · 29 home / 28 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over62
- Under38
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes61
- No39
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Fortuna Koln ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Fortuna Koln at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.07 · 29 matches
Schalke 04 II away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.00 · 28 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Fortuna Koln attack 1.90 + Schalke 04 II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.95
Schalke 04 II attack 1.43 + Fortuna Koln defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.25
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 54%?"
Fortuna Koln at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 54% does not mean "Fortuna Koln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Fortuna Koln substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetingsFortuna Köln
Paderborn IISchalke 04 II
Bochum II
Sportfreunde Siegen
Bonner SC
Wiedenbrück
SV Rodinghausen
FC Gutersloh
Köln II
Sportfreunde Lotte
Rot-weiss Oberhausen
Borussia M'gladbach II
Wuppertaler SV
Fortuna Düsseldorf II
FC Bocholt
SSVg Velbert
Borussia Dortmund IIIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Fortuna Koln host Schalke 04 II on Saturday, 11 May 2024 at 12:00. The match is part of the League #87 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Fortuna Koln vs Schalke 04 II
Fortuna Koln and Schalke 04 II drew 1-1 in League #87 on May 11, 2024.
Goals: S. Batarilo (22'), J. Kaparos (47' pen).
The match was played at Südstadion in Köln.