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Fortuna Köln vs Borussia M'gladbach II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Fortuna Köln
Fortuna Köln
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Borussia M'gladbach II
Borussia M'gladbach II
7/18/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fortuna Köln66%
×Draw17%
Borussia M'gladbach II17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Köln
2.71
Borussia M'gladbach II
1.33

Fortuna Köln creates 104% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

Fortuna Köln
2.75
Borussia M'gladbach II
1.17

allows per match

Fortuna Köln
1.50
Borussia M'gladbach II
2.67

finishing

Fortuna Köln+0.00on par
Borussia M'gladbach II+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Köln ↓

Borussia M'gladbach II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Fortuna Köln or draw
83%
Fortuna Köln or Borussia M'gladbach II
83%
Draw or Borussia M'gladbach II
34%

Winning margin

Fortuna Köln wins by 2+
45%
Borussia M'gladbach II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Fortuna Köln 1+ goals
93%
Fortuna Köln 2+ goals
75%
Fortuna Köln 3+ goals
50%
Borussia M'gladbach II 1+ goals
74%
Borussia M'gladbach II 2+ goals
38%
Borussia M'gladbach II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Köln (draw refunded)
79%
Borussia M'gladbach II (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Köln at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

Borussia M'gladbach II away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Köln attack 2.75 + Borussia M'gladbach II defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.71

Borussia M'gladbach II attack 1.17 + Fortuna Köln defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Fortuna Köln scores more
66%
level
17%
Borussia M'gladbach II scores more
17%

Fortuna Köln at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Fortuna Köln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Fortuna Köln 1–0 Borussia M'gladbach II

Fortuna Köln beat Borussia M'gladbach II 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 18, 2026.