Fortuna Köln vs Borussia M'gladbach II — League #87 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 19+ matches
Fortuna Köln52%
Borussia M'gladbach II25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Fortuna Köln creates 51% more chances
Season form · 29 home / 19 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over59
- Under41
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes59
- No41
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Fortuna Köln ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Fortuna Köln at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.07 · 29 matches
Borussia M'gladbach II away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Fortuna Köln attack 1.90 + Borussia M'gladbach II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.84
Borussia M'gladbach II attack 1.37 + Fortuna Köln defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.22
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
Fortuna Köln at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "Fortuna Köln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Rot-weiss OberhausenFortuna Köln
Paderborn II
FC Gutersloh
Schalke 04 II
Sportfreunde Siegen
Bonner SC
Bochum II
Wiedenbrück
SV Rodinghausen
Köln II
Fortuna Düsseldorf II
Sportfreunde LotteBorussia M'gladbach II
Wuppertaler SV
FC Bocholt
SSVg Velbert
Borussia Dortmund IIIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Fortuna Köln host Borussia M'gladbach II on Friday, 23 August 2024 at 17:30. The match is part of the League #87 2026/2027 season.
League #87: Fortuna Köln 4–2 Borussia M'gladbach II
Fortuna Köln beat Borussia M'gladbach II 4-2 in League #87 on August 23, 2024.
Goals: H. Mittelstädt (22'), A. Budimbu (25'), N. Pesch (32'), C. Herrmann (38'), H. Matter (58'), S. Batarilo (90+3' pen).
The match was played at Südstadion in Köln.