Fortuna Köln U19 1–1 Borussia M'bach U19

Fortuna Köln U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Borussia M'bach U19

L. Lützeler 50'

K. Asallari 20'

10/16/2021

U19 Bundesliga · West - 5Großsportanlage Bocklemünd

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Fortuna Köln U1919%

×Draw18%

Borussia M'bach U1963%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna Köln U19Expected goals in this matchBorussia M'bach U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

2.63

Fortuna Köln U19

1.41

Borussia M'bach U19

2.63

Borussia M'bach U19 creates 87% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 73 away

1.36

creates per match

2.32

2.93

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Fortuna Köln U19

1.36

Borussia M'bach U19

2.32

allows per match

Fortuna Köln U19

2.93

Borussia M'bach U19

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Köln U19+0.00on par

Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Köln U19 ↓

Borussia M'bach U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Fortuna Köln U19 or draw

37%

Fortuna Köln U19 or Borussia M'bach U19

82%

Draw or Borussia M'bach U19

81%

Winning margin

Fortuna Köln U19 wins by 2+

8%

Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Fortuna Köln U19 1+ goals

76%

Fortuna Köln U19 2+ goals

41%

Fortuna Köln U19 3+ goals

17%

Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals

93%

Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals

73%

Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Köln U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Köln U19 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.93 · 28 matches

Borussia M'bach U19 away — creates 2.32, concedes 1.45 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Köln U19 attack 1.36 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.41

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.32 + Fortuna Köln U19 defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Fortuna Köln U19 scores more

19%

level

18%

Borussia M'bach U19 scores more

63%

Borussia M'bach U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Borussia M'bach U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

K. Asallari

50'

L. Lützeler

59'

S. Turping← T. Reitz

74'

R. Naderi← M. Scheibner

79'

W. Ezami← F. San José

89'

J. Hoffmann← O. Calis

90'

D. Nweke

90'

D. Nweke

90+2'

M. Ojesanmi← J. Sticker

90+2'

A. Michaelis← S. Turping

Fortuna

Borussia

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: T. Westendorf

79'▲W. Ezami←▼F. San José

89'▲J. Hoffmann←▼O. Calis

90+2'▲M. Ojesanmi←▼J. Sticker

Fortuna Köln U19 substitutes

EzamiHoffmannOjesanmiAltugFrancisSatilmis

Manager: S. Eickel

59'▲S. Turping←▼T. Reitz

74'▲R. Naderi←▼M. Scheibner

90+2'▲A. Michaelis←▼S. Turping

Borussia M'bach U19 substitutes

TurpingNaderiMichaelisSchreckWirthZenkuWerrmann