Borussia M'bach U19 2–1 Fortuna Köln U19

Borussia M'bach U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fortuna Köln U19

J. Steinkötter 64'

A. Abu-Alfa 18'

K. Maletzki 67'

3/11/2018

U19 Bundesliga · West - 21Fohlenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Borussia M'bach U1967%

×Draw18%

Fortuna Köln U1915%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia M'bach U19Expected goals in this matchFortuna Köln U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.04

Borussia M'bach U19

2.42

Fortuna Köln U19

1.04

Borussia M'bach U19 creates 133% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 28 away

2.34

creates per match

0.79

1.30

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Borussia M'bach U19

2.34

Fortuna Köln U19

0.79

allows per match

Borussia M'bach U19

1.30

Fortuna Köln U19

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par

Fortuna Köln U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia M'bach U19 ↓

Fortuna Köln U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Borussia M'bach U19 or draw

85%

Borussia M'bach U19 or Fortuna Köln U19

82%

Draw or Fortuna Köln U19

33%

Winning margin

Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+

45%

Fortuna Köln U19 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals

91%

Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals

69%

Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals

43%

Fortuna Köln U19 1+ goals

65%

Fortuna Köln U19 2+ goals

28%

Fortuna Köln U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)

82%

Fortuna Köln U19 (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia M'bach U19 at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.30 · 64 matches

Fortuna Köln U19 away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.50 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.34 + Fortuna Köln U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.42

Fortuna Köln U19 attack 0.79 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Borussia M'bach U19 scores more

67%

level

18%

Fortuna Köln U19 scores more

15%

Borussia M'bach U19 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Borussia M'bach U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

A. Abu-Alfa← A. Antalik

18'

A. Abu-Alfa

46'

G. Khvedelidze← F. Sylaj

46'

64'

67'

71'

71'

W. Kametas← N. Ochojski

80'

A. Sürü← N. Neumann

87'

B. Çetin← J. Pfalz

90+1'

L. Hiepen← S. Atiye

Borussia

Fortuna

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: T. Flath

12'▲A. Abu-Alfa←▼A. Antalik

71'▲B. Šabani←▼A. Arslan

87'▲B. Çetin←▼J. Pfalz

90+1'▲L. Hiepen←▼S. Atiye

Borussia M'bach U19 substitutes

Abu-AlfaŠabaniÇetinHiepenBeaujeanNissenTiawa

Manager: P. Walocha

46'▲G. Khvedelidze←▼F. Sylaj

46'▲K. Maletzki←▼E. Koc

71'▲W. Kametas←▼N. Ochojski

80'▲A. Sürü←▼N. Neumann

Fortuna Köln U19 substitutes

KhvedelidzeMaletzkiKametasSürüCrüchtenKanuricGörgens