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Fortuna Köln II vs Deutz — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Fortuna Köln II
Fortuna Köln II
CANC
18:30
Deutz
Deutz
11/3/2020Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 6Kunstrasenplatz Jean-Löring-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Fortuna Köln II59%
×Draw20%
Deutz22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Köln II
2.32
Deutz
1.35

Fortuna Köln II creates 72% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 19 away

creates per match

Fortuna Köln II
1.96
Deutz
1.11

allows per match

Fortuna Köln II
1.58
Deutz
2.68

finishing

Fortuna Köln II+0.00on par
Deutz+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Köln II ↓

Deutz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Fortuna Köln II or draw
78%
Fortuna Köln II or Deutz
80%
Draw or Deutz
41%

Winning margin

Fortuna Köln II wins by 2+
37%
Deutz wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fortuna Köln II 1+ goals
90%
Fortuna Köln II 2+ goals
67%
Fortuna Köln II 3+ goals
40%
Deutz 1+ goals
74%
Deutz 2+ goals
39%
Deutz 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Köln II (draw refunded)
73%
Deutz (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Köln II at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.58 · 78 matches

Deutz away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Köln II attack 1.96 + Deutz defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.32

Deutz attack 1.11 + Fortuna Köln II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Fortuna Köln II scores more
59%
level
20%
Deutz scores more
22%

Fortuna Köln II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Fortuna Köln II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Fortuna Köln II host Deutz

November 3, 2020: Fortuna Köln II take on Deutz in Oberliga - Mittelrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Fortuna Köln II host Deutz at Kunstrasenplatz Jean-Löring-Sportpark.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.