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Deutz vs Fortuna Köln II — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Deutz
Deutz
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Fortuna Köln II
Fortuna Köln II
4/16/2022Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 26SV Deutz Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Deutz28%
×Draw21%
Fortuna Köln II51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deutz
1.50
Fortuna Köln II
2.10

Fortuna Köln II creates 40% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 79 away

creates per match

Deutz
1.10
Fortuna Köln II
1.54

allows per match

Deutz
2.67
Fortuna Köln II
1.89

finishing

Deutz+0.00on par
Fortuna Köln II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deutz ↓

Fortuna Köln II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Deutz or draw
49%
Deutz or Fortuna Köln II
79%
Draw or Fortuna Köln II
72%

Winning margin

Deutz wins by 2+
12%
Fortuna Köln II wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Deutz 1+ goals
78%
Deutz 2+ goals
44%
Deutz 3+ goals
19%
Fortuna Köln II 1+ goals
88%
Fortuna Köln II 2+ goals
62%
Fortuna Köln II 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Deutz (draw refunded)
35%
Fortuna Köln II (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deutz at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.67 · 21 matches

Fortuna Köln II away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.89 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deutz attack 1.10 + Fortuna Köln II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.50

Fortuna Köln II attack 1.54 + Deutz defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Deutz scores more
28%
level
21%
Fortuna Köln II scores more
51%

Fortuna Köln II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fortuna Köln II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Deutz 2–1 Fortuna Köln II

Deutz beat Fortuna Köln II 2-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at SV Deutz Kunstrasenplatz in Köln.