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Fortuna Köln II vs Bergisch Gladbach — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Fortuna Köln II
Fortuna Köln II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bergisch Gladbach
Bergisch Gladbach
10/6/2024Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 7Kunstrasenplatz Jean-Löring-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Fortuna Köln II34%
×Draw23%
Bergisch Gladbach43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Köln II
1.55
Bergisch Gladbach
1.75

Bergisch Gladbach creates 13% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 76 away

creates per match

Fortuna Köln II
1.96
Bergisch Gladbach
1.92

allows per match

Fortuna Köln II
1.58
Bergisch Gladbach
1.14

finishing

Fortuna Köln II+0.00on par
Bergisch Gladbach+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Köln II ↓

Bergisch Gladbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Fortuna Köln II or draw
57%
Fortuna Köln II or Bergisch Gladbach
77%
Draw or Bergisch Gladbach
66%

Winning margin

Fortuna Köln II wins by 2+
16%
Bergisch Gladbach wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Fortuna Köln II 1+ goals
79%
Fortuna Köln II 2+ goals
46%
Fortuna Köln II 3+ goals
20%
Bergisch Gladbach 1+ goals
83%
Bergisch Gladbach 2+ goals
52%
Bergisch Gladbach 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Köln II (draw refunded)
45%
Bergisch Gladbach (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Köln II at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.58 · 78 matches

Bergisch Gladbach away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.14 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Köln II attack 1.96 + Bergisch Gladbach defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.55

Bergisch Gladbach attack 1.92 + Fortuna Köln II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fortuna Köln II scores more
34%
level
23%
Bergisch Gladbach scores more
43%

Bergisch Gladbach at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bergisch Gladbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortuna Köln II vs Bergisch Gladbach

Fortuna Köln II beat Bergisch Gladbach 3-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Jean-Löring-Sportpark in Köln.