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Bergisch Gladbach vs Fortuna Köln II — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Bergisch Gladbach
Bergisch Gladbach
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Fortuna Köln II
Fortuna Köln II
12/10/2023Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 17BELKAW-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Bergisch Gladbach57%
×Draw20%
Fortuna Köln II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bergisch Gladbach
2.21
Fortuna Köln II
1.35

Bergisch Gladbach creates 64% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 79 away

creates per match

Bergisch Gladbach
2.52
Fortuna Köln II
1.54

allows per match

Bergisch Gladbach
1.16
Fortuna Köln II
1.89

finishing

Bergisch Gladbach+0.00on par
Fortuna Köln II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergisch Gladbach ↓

Fortuna Köln II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Bergisch Gladbach or draw
77%
Bergisch Gladbach or Fortuna Köln II
80%
Draw or Fortuna Köln II
43%

Winning margin

Bergisch Gladbach wins by 2+
35%
Fortuna Köln II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bergisch Gladbach 1+ goals
89%
Bergisch Gladbach 2+ goals
65%
Bergisch Gladbach 3+ goals
38%
Fortuna Köln II 1+ goals
74%
Fortuna Köln II 2+ goals
39%
Fortuna Köln II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bergisch Gladbach (draw refunded)
71%
Fortuna Köln II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bergisch Gladbach at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.16 · 77 matches

Fortuna Köln II away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.89 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bergisch Gladbach attack 2.52 + Fortuna Köln II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.21

Fortuna Köln II attack 1.54 + Bergisch Gladbach defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bergisch Gladbach scores more
57%
level
20%
Fortuna Köln II scores more
23%

Bergisch Gladbach at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bergisch Gladbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bergisch Gladbach vs Fortuna Köln II

Fortuna Köln II beat Bergisch Gladbach 3-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at BELKAW-Arena in Bergisch Gladbach.