Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Borussia Dortmund — Friendlies Clubs 2026
Borussia Dortmund have won 3 in a row
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 5+ matches
Fortuna Düsseldorf23%Borussia Dortmund56%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Borussia Dortmund creates 61% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 7 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over69
- Under31
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes66
- No34
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Fortuna Düsseldorf ↓
Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Fortuna Düsseldorf at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches
Borussia Dortmund away — creates 3.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.60 + Borussia Dortmund defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.37
Borussia Dortmund attack 3.43 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.21
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 56%?"
Borussia Dortmund at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 56% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Borussia Dortmund have won 3 of the last 4 meetings
- Borussia Dortmund score first in 60% of matches
- 37% of Borussia Dortmund’s goals come after the 75th minute
- Their last 4 meetings averaged 3.8 goals
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Fortuna Düsseldorf host Borussia Dortmund on Saturday, 25 July 2026 at 11:00. The match is part of the Friendlies Clubs 2026/2027 season.
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Borussia Dortmund — Match Preview
Fortuna Düsseldorf face Borussia Dortmund on July 25, 2026 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.
Fortuna Düsseldorf host Borussia Dortmund at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.