Fortuna Dusseldorf 0–1 Borussia Dortmund

Fortuna Dusseldorf

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Borussia Dortmund

E. Haaland 90+5'

6/13/2020

Bundesliga · Round 31Merkur Spiel-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Fortuna Dusseldorf29%

×Draw23%

Borussia Dortmund48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna DusseldorfExpected goals in this matchBorussia Dortmund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.75

Fortuna Dusseldorf

1.31

Borussia Dortmund

1.75

Borussia Dortmund creates 34% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 108 away

1.28

creates per match

1.88

1.63

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf

1.28

Borussia Dortmund

1.88

allows per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf

1.63

Borussia Dortmund

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Dusseldorf+0.00on par

Borussia Dortmund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Dusseldorf ↓

Borussia Dortmund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Fortuna Dusseldorf or draw

52%

Fortuna Dusseldorf or Borussia Dortmund

77%

Draw or Borussia Dortmund

71%

Winning margin

Fortuna Dusseldorf wins by 2+

12%

Borussia Dortmund wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Fortuna Dusseldorf 1+ goals

73%

Fortuna Dusseldorf 2+ goals

38%

Fortuna Dusseldorf 3+ goals

14%

Borussia Dortmund 1+ goals

83%

Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals

52%

Borussia Dortmund 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Dusseldorf (draw refunded)

38%

Borussia Dortmund (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Dusseldorf at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.63 · 32 matches

Borussia Dortmund away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.35 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Dusseldorf attack 1.28 + Borussia Dortmund defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Borussia Dortmund attack 1.88 + Fortuna Dusseldorf defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fortuna Dusseldorf scores more

29%

level

23%

Borussia Dortmund scores more

48%

Borussia Dortmund at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

Mats Hummels

Borussia Dortmund · D

7.9

Match Events

58'

T. Hazard

61'

A. Witsel← E. Haaland

65'

M. Goal Disallowed - handball70'Akanji

74'

T. Hazard← G. Reyna

76'

M. Suttner← S. Skrzybski

80'

N. Giesselmann

81'

M. Sobottka← A. Morales

81'

K. Karaman← R. Hennings

83'

E. Thommy← J. Zimmer

84'

A. Hakimi

90+5'

E. Haaland↳ M. Akanji

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FortunaBorussia

Overview

37%Possession63%

6Total Shots6

6Corners1

6Fouls15

Shots

6Total Shots6

3On Target3

3Off Target2

0Blocked1

3Inside Box5

3Outside Box1

Passing

37%Possession63%

426Total Passes733

347Accurate Passes648

81%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls15

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1