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Borussia Dortmund vs Fortuna Dusseldorf — Bundesliga 2026

Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Fortuna Dusseldorf
Fortuna Dusseldorf
M. Götze 90+2'
T. Delaney 53'
C. Pulisic 41'
D. Kownacki 90+5'
O. Fink 47'
5/11/2019BundesligaBundesliga · Round 33Signal Iduna Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Borussia Dortmund66%
×Draw18%
Fortuna Dusseldorf16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borussia Dortmund
2.49
Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.16

Borussia Dortmund creates 115% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 33 away

creates per match

Borussia Dortmund
2.77
Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.15

allows per match

Borussia Dortmund
1.17
Fortuna Dusseldorf
2.21

finishing

Borussia Dortmund+0.00on par
Fortuna Dusseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Dortmund ↓

Fortuna Dusseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Borussia Dortmund or draw
84%
Borussia Dortmund or Fortuna Dusseldorf
82%
Draw or Fortuna Dusseldorf
34%

Winning margin

Borussia Dortmund wins by 2+
44%
Fortuna Dusseldorf wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Borussia Dortmund 1+ goals
92%
Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals
71%
Borussia Dortmund 3+ goals
45%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 1+ goals
69%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 2+ goals
32%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Borussia Dortmund (draw refunded)
80%
Fortuna Dusseldorf (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Dortmund at home — creates 2.77, concedes 1.17 · 111 matches

Fortuna Dusseldorf away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.21 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Dortmund attack 2.77 + Fortuna Dusseldorf defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.49

Fortuna Dusseldorf attack 1.15 + Borussia Dortmund defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Borussia Dortmund scores more
66%
level
18%
Fortuna Dusseldorf scores more
16%

Borussia Dortmund at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
T. DelaneyBorussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund · M
8.1

Match Events

41'
C. Pulisic↳ T. Delaney
47'
O. Fink↳ M. Suttner
53'
T. Delaney
61'
J. Sancho← J. Bruun Larsen
67'
B. Raman← M. Suttner
76'
K. Karaman← O. Fink
82'
Adam Bodzek
85'
A. Morales← D. Lukebakio
89'
Christian Pulišić
90+1'
M. Schmelzer← C. Pulisic
90+5'
M. Philipp← M. Götze
90+2'
M. Götze
90+5'
D. Kownacki↳ K. Ayhan

Possession

60%Borussia

Shots

15Borussia

Pass accuracy

52%Borussia

Statistics

BorussiaFortuna
Overview
60%Possession40%
15Total Shots8
2Corners4
12Fouls12
Shots
15Total Shots8
5On Target3
5Off Target4
5Blocked1
11Inside Box8
4Outside Box0
Passing
60%Possession40%
686Total Passes438
624Accurate Passes362
91%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls12
1Yellow Cards0
–Red Cards1
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Borussia Dortmund vs Fortuna Dusseldorf

Borussia Dortmund beat Fortuna Dusseldorf 3-2 in Bundesliga on May 11, 2019.

Goals: C. Pulisic (41'), O. Fink (47'), T. Delaney (53'), M. Götze (90+2'), D. Kownacki (90+5').

Borussia Dortmund controlled possession (60%) and registered 15 shots to 8.

The match was played at Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund.