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Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Magdeburg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Fortuna Düsseldorf
Fortuna Düsseldorf
FT
2 – 5
HT: 2 – 1
1. FC Magdeburg
1. FC Magdeburg
12/20/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 17Merkur Spiel-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf46%
×Draw23%
1. FC Magdeburg31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.77
1. FC Magdeburg
1.41

Fortuna Düsseldorf creates 26% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 85 away

creates per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.77
1. FC Magdeburg
1.51

allows per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.31
1. FC Magdeburg
1.78

finishing

Fortuna Düsseldorf+0.00on par
1. FC Magdeburg+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Düsseldorf ↓

1. FC Magdeburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Fortuna Düsseldorf or draw
69%
Fortuna Düsseldorf or 1. FC Magdeburg
77%
Draw or 1. FC Magdeburg
54%

Winning margin

Fortuna Düsseldorf wins by 2+
25%
1. FC Magdeburg wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fortuna Düsseldorf 1+ goals
83%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 2+ goals
53%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 3+ goals
26%
1. FC Magdeburg 1+ goals
76%
1. FC Magdeburg 2+ goals
41%
1. FC Magdeburg 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
60%
1. FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Düsseldorf at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.31 · 102 matches

1. FC Magdeburg away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.78 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.77 + 1. FC Magdeburg defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.77

1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.51 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fortuna Düsseldorf scores more
46%
level
23%
1. FC Magdeburg scores more
31%

Fortuna Düsseldorf at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2–5 1. FC Magdeburg

1. FC Magdeburg beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 5-2 in 2. Bundesliga on December 20, 2024.

The match was played at Merkur Spiel-Arena in Düsseldorf.