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1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf — 2. Bundesliga 2018

1. FC Magdeburg
1. FC Magdeburg
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Fortuna Düsseldorf
4/18/20262. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 30Avnet-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

1. FC Magdeburg37%
×Draw25%
Fortuna Düsseldorf38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Magdeburg
1.38
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 102 away

creates per match

1. FC Magdeburg
1.38
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.38

allows per match

1. FC Magdeburg
1.42
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.39

finishing

1. FC Magdeburg+0.00on par
Fortuna Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Magdeburg ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

1. FC Magdeburg or draw
62%
1. FC Magdeburg or Fortuna Düsseldorf
75%
Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf
63%

Winning margin

1. FC Magdeburg wins by 2+
17%
Fortuna Düsseldorf wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

1. FC Magdeburg 1+ goals
75%
1. FC Magdeburg 2+ goals
40%
1. FC Magdeburg 3+ goals
16%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 1+ goals
75%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 2+ goals
41%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

1. FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)
49%
Fortuna Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Magdeburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.42 · 85 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.39 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.38 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.38 + 1. FC Magdeburg defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

1. FC Magdeburg scores more
37%
level
25%
Fortuna Düsseldorf scores more
38%

Fortuna Düsseldorf at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf

1. FC Magdeburg beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-0 in 2. Bundesliga on April 18, 2026.

The match was played at Avnet-Arena in Magdeburg.