Forte Taganrog 4–0 Dynamo Makhachkala II

Forte Taganrog

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Dynamo Makhachkala II

4/27/2024

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Forte Arena Taganrog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Forte Taganrog71%

×Draw18%

Dynamo Makhachkala II11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Forte TaganrogExpected goals in this matchDynamo Makhachkala II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.69

Forte Taganrog

2.17

Dynamo Makhachkala II

0.69

Forte Taganrog creates 214% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 51 away

2.02

creates per match

0.65

0.73

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Forte Taganrog

2.02

Dynamo Makhachkala II

0.65

allows per match

Forte Taganrog

0.73

Dynamo Makhachkala II

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Forte Taganrog+0.00on par

Dynamo Makhachkala II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forte Taganrog ↓

Dynamo Makhachkala II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Forte Taganrog or draw

89%

Forte Taganrog or Dynamo Makhachkala II

82%

Draw or Dynamo Makhachkala II

29%

Winning margin

Forte Taganrog wins by 2+

47%

Dynamo Makhachkala II wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Forte Taganrog 1+ goals

89%

Forte Taganrog 2+ goals

64%

Forte Taganrog 3+ goals

36%

Dynamo Makhachkala II 1+ goals

50%

Dynamo Makhachkala II 2+ goals

15%

Dynamo Makhachkala II 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)

87%

Dynamo Makhachkala II (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forte Taganrog at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.73 · 63 matches

Dynamo Makhachkala II away — creates 0.65, concedes 2.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forte Taganrog attack 2.02 + Dynamo Makhachkala II defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Dynamo Makhachkala II attack 0.65 + Forte Taganrog defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Forte Taganrog scores more

71%

level

18%

Dynamo Makhachkala II scores more

11%

Forte Taganrog at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Forte Taganrog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff