Dynamo Makhachkala II 1–0 Forte Taganrog

Dynamo Makhachkala II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Forte Taganrog

8/24/2024

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Dynamo Makhachkala II21%

×Draw24%

Forte Taganrog55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo Makhachkala IIExpected goals in this matchForte Taganrog

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.71

Dynamo Makhachkala II

0.95

Forte Taganrog

1.71

Forte Taganrog creates 80% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 64 away

0.76

creates per match

1.61

1.80

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Dynamo Makhachkala II

0.76

Forte Taganrog

1.61

allows per match

Dynamo Makhachkala II

1.80

Forte Taganrog

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Makhachkala II+0.00on par

Forte Taganrog+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Makhachkala II ↓

Forte Taganrog →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–210%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Dynamo Makhachkala II or draw

45%

Dynamo Makhachkala II or Forte Taganrog

76%

Draw or Forte Taganrog

79%

Winning margin

Dynamo Makhachkala II wins by 2+

7%

Forte Taganrog wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Dynamo Makhachkala II 1+ goals

61%

Dynamo Makhachkala II 2+ goals

25%

Dynamo Makhachkala II 3+ goals

7%

Forte Taganrog 1+ goals

82%

Forte Taganrog 2+ goals

51%

Forte Taganrog 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Makhachkala II (draw refunded)

27%

Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Makhachkala II at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.80 · 49 matches

Forte Taganrog away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.14 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Makhachkala II attack 0.76 + Forte Taganrog defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.95

Forte Taganrog attack 1.61 + Dynamo Makhachkala II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Dynamo Makhachkala II scores more

21%

level

24%

Forte Taganrog scores more

55%

Forte Taganrog at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Forte Taganrog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff