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Forte Taganrog vs Chelyabinsk — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Forte Taganrog
Forte Taganrog
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Chelyabinsk
Chelyabinsk
8/5/2023Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 4Forte Arena Taganrog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Forte Taganrog47%
×Draw29%
Chelyabinsk24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forte Taganrog
1.28
Chelyabinsk
0.83

Forte Taganrog creates 54% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Forte Taganrog
1.67
Chelyabinsk
0.67

allows per match

Forte Taganrog
1.00
Chelyabinsk
0.89

finishing

Forte Taganrog+0.00on par
Chelyabinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forte Taganrog ↓

Chelyabinsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Forte Taganrog or draw
76%
Forte Taganrog or Chelyabinsk
71%
Draw or Chelyabinsk
53%

Winning margin

Forte Taganrog wins by 2+
22%
Chelyabinsk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Forte Taganrog 1+ goals
72%
Forte Taganrog 2+ goals
37%
Forte Taganrog 3+ goals
14%
Chelyabinsk 1+ goals
56%
Chelyabinsk 2+ goals
20%
Chelyabinsk 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)
66%
Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forte Taganrog at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Chelyabinsk away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forte Taganrog attack 1.67 + Chelyabinsk defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.28

Chelyabinsk attack 0.67 + Forte Taganrog defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Forte Taganrog scores more
47%
level
29%
Chelyabinsk scores more
24%

Forte Taganrog at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Forte Taganrog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Forte Taganrog vs Chelyabinsk

Forte Taganrog and Chelyabinsk drew 2-2 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Forte Arena Taganrog in Taganrog.