Chelyabinsk 3–1 Forte Taganrog: Result & Stats

Chelyabinsk

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Forte Taganrog

10/1/2023

Second League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 12Stadion Central'nyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Chelyabinsk55%

×Draw24%

Forte Taganrog21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelyabinskExpected goals in this matchForte Taganrog

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.95

Chelyabinsk

1.72

Forte Taganrog

0.95

Chelyabinsk creates 81% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.44

creates per match

1.00

0.89

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Chelyabinsk

1.44

Forte Taganrog

1.00

allows per match

Chelyabinsk

0.89

Forte Taganrog

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chelyabinsk+0.00on par

Forte Taganrog+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelyabinsk ↓

Forte Taganrog →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Chelyabinsk or draw

79%

Chelyabinsk or Forte Taganrog

76%

Draw or Forte Taganrog

45%

Winning margin

Chelyabinsk wins by 2+

31%

Forte Taganrog wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Chelyabinsk 1+ goals

82%

Chelyabinsk 2+ goals

51%

Chelyabinsk 3+ goals

25%

Forte Taganrog 1+ goals

61%

Forte Taganrog 2+ goals

25%

Forte Taganrog 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)

73%

Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelyabinsk at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Forte Taganrog away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelyabinsk attack 1.44 + Forte Taganrog defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Forte Taganrog attack 1.00 + Chelyabinsk defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Chelyabinsk scores more

55%

level

24%

Forte Taganrog scores more

21%

Chelyabinsk at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Chelyabinsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff