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Forte Taganrog vs Avangard Kursk — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Forte Taganrog
Forte Taganrog
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
9/9/2023Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 9Forte Arena Taganrog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Forte Taganrog45%
×Draw28%
Avangard Kursk27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forte Taganrog
1.33
Avangard Kursk
0.97

Forte Taganrog creates 37% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 16 away

creates per match

Forte Taganrog
1.67
Avangard Kursk
0.94

allows per match

Forte Taganrog
1.00
Avangard Kursk
1.00

finishing

Forte Taganrog+0.00on par
Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forte Taganrog ↓

Avangard Kursk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Forte Taganrog or draw
73%
Forte Taganrog or Avangard Kursk
72%
Draw or Avangard Kursk
55%

Winning margin

Forte Taganrog wins by 2+
21%
Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Forte Taganrog 1+ goals
74%
Forte Taganrog 2+ goals
38%
Forte Taganrog 3+ goals
15%
Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
62%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
25%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)
62%
Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forte Taganrog at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forte Taganrog attack 1.67 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Avangard Kursk attack 0.94 + Forte Taganrog defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Forte Taganrog scores more
45%
level
28%
Avangard Kursk scores more
27%

Forte Taganrog at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Forte Taganrog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Forte Taganrog vs Avangard Kursk

Avangard Kursk beat Forte Taganrog 1-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Forte Arena Taganrog in Taganrog.