Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Avangard Kursk vs Forte Taganrog — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Forte Taganrog
Forte Taganrog
11/5/2023Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 17Stadion Trudovye Reservy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Avangard Kursk49%
×Draw23%
Forte Taganrog28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avangard Kursk
1.81
Forte Taganrog
1.31

Avangard Kursk creates 38% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 9 away

creates per match

Avangard Kursk
1.63
Forte Taganrog
1.00

allows per match

Avangard Kursk
1.63
Forte Taganrog
2.00

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par
Forte Taganrog+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

Forte Taganrog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw
72%
Avangard Kursk or Forte Taganrog
77%
Draw or Forte Taganrog
51%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
27%
Forte Taganrog wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
84%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
54%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
27%
Forte Taganrog 1+ goals
73%
Forte Taganrog 2+ goals
38%
Forte Taganrog 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
64%
Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Forte Taganrog away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 1.63 + Forte Taganrog defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Forte Taganrog attack 1.00 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more
49%
level
23%
Forte Taganrog scores more
28%

Avangard Kursk at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Avangard Kursk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Silver: Avangard Kursk 1–1 Forte Taganrog

Avangard Kursk and Forte Taganrog drew 1-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Trudovye Reservy in Kursk.