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Fortaleza W vs Atlético Bucaramanga W — Liga Femenina 2020

Fortaleza W
Fortaleza W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Bucaramanga W
Atlético Bucaramanga W
4/7/2025Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Group Stage - 7Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Fortaleza W51%
×Draw25%
Atlético Bucaramanga W24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortaleza W
1.63
Atlético Bucaramanga W
1.05

Fortaleza W creates 55% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 39 away

creates per match

Fortaleza W
0.81
Atlético Bucaramanga W
0.49

allows per match

Fortaleza W
1.61
Atlético Bucaramanga W
2.44

finishing

Fortaleza W+0.00on par
Atlético Bucaramanga W+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza W ↓

Atlético Bucaramanga W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Fortaleza W or draw
76%
Fortaleza W or Atlético Bucaramanga W
75%
Draw or Atlético Bucaramanga W
49%

Winning margin

Fortaleza W wins by 2+
27%
Atlético Bucaramanga W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fortaleza W 1+ goals
80%
Fortaleza W 2+ goals
48%
Fortaleza W 3+ goals
22%
Atlético Bucaramanga W 1+ goals
65%
Atlético Bucaramanga W 2+ goals
28%
Atlético Bucaramanga W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza W (draw refunded)
68%
Atlético Bucaramanga W (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza W at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

Atlético Bucaramanga W away — creates 0.49, concedes 2.44 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza W attack 0.81 + Atlético Bucaramanga W defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.63

Atlético Bucaramanga W attack 0.49 + Fortaleza W defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fortaleza W scores more
51%
level
25%
Atlético Bucaramanga W scores more
24%

Fortaleza W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fortaleza W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortaleza W vs Atlético Bucaramanga W

Fortaleza W and Atlético Bucaramanga W drew 1-1 in Liga Femenina on April 7, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo in Bogotá, D.C..