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Atlético Bucaramanga W vs Fortaleza W — Liga Femenina 2020

Atlético Bucaramanga W
Atlético Bucaramanga W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fortaleza W
Fortaleza W
5/7/2022Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 17Estadio Alfonso López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Atlético Bucaramanga W37%
×Draw27%
Fortaleza W36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Bucaramanga W
1.23
Fortaleza W
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 30 away

creates per match

Atlético Bucaramanga W
0.55
Fortaleza W
0.67

allows per match

Atlético Bucaramanga W
1.76
Fortaleza W
1.90

finishing

Atlético Bucaramanga W+0.00on par
Fortaleza W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Bucaramanga W ↓

Fortaleza W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Bucaramanga W or draw
64%
Atlético Bucaramanga W or Fortaleza W
73%
Draw or Fortaleza W
63%

Winning margin

Atlético Bucaramanga W wins by 2+
16%
Fortaleza W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Atlético Bucaramanga W 1+ goals
71%
Atlético Bucaramanga W 2+ goals
35%
Atlético Bucaramanga W 3+ goals
13%
Fortaleza W 1+ goals
70%
Fortaleza W 2+ goals
34%
Fortaleza W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Atlético Bucaramanga W (draw refunded)
50%
Fortaleza W (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Bucaramanga W at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.76 · 38 matches

Fortaleza W away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Bucaramanga W attack 0.55 + Fortaleza W defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.23

Fortaleza W attack 0.67 + Atlético Bucaramanga W defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atlético Bucaramanga W scores more
37%
level
27%
Fortaleza W scores more
36%

Atlético Bucaramanga W at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atlético Bucaramanga W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Bucaramanga W vs Fortaleza W

Atlético Bucaramanga W and Fortaleza W drew 1-1 in Liga Femenina on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Alfonso López in Bucaramanga.