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Fortaleza U17 vs Atletico GO U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Fortaleza U17
Fortaleza U17
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Atletico GO U17
Atletico GO U17
Joao Lucas 45'
A. L. Fini Campos 28'
C. L. Ribeiro 16'
Nathan 43'
6/4/2025Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 4Centro de Treinamento Ribamar Bezerra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Fortaleza U1779%
×Draw14%
Atletico GO U178%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortaleza U17
2.75
Atletico GO U17
0.74

Fortaleza U17 creates 272% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

creates per match

Fortaleza U17
1.79
Atletico GO U17
0.60

allows per match

Fortaleza U17
0.89
Atletico GO U17
3.70

finishing

Fortaleza U17+0.00on par
Atletico GO U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 67Under: 3367%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 51Yes: 4951%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza U17 ↓

Atletico GO U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Fortaleza U17 or draw
92%
Fortaleza U17 or Atletico GO U17
86%
Draw or Atletico GO U17
21%

Winning margin

Fortaleza U17 wins by 2+
58%
Atletico GO U17 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Fortaleza U17 1+ goals
93%
Fortaleza U17 2+ goals
75%
Fortaleza U17 3+ goals
51%
Atletico GO U17 1+ goals
52%
Atletico GO U17 2+ goals
17%
Atletico GO U17 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza U17 (draw refunded)
91%
Atletico GO U17 (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza U17 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Atletico GO U17 away — creates 0.60, concedes 3.70 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza U17 attack 1.79 + Atletico GO U17 defence 3.70 → ÷2 → 2.75

Atletico GO U17 attack 0.60 + Fortaleza U17 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Fortaleza U17 scores more
79%
level
14%
Atletico GO U17 scores more
8%

Fortaleza U17 at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Fortaleza U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
C. L. Ribeiro
28'
A. L. Fini Campos
43'
Nathan
45'
Joao Lucas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortaleza U17 vs Atletico GO U17

Fortaleza U17 beat Atletico GO U17 3-1 in Brasileiro U17 on June 4, 2025.

Goals: C. L. Ribeiro (16'), A. L. Fini Campos (28'), Nathan (43'), Joao Lucas (45').

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Ribamar Bezerra in Maracanaú, Ceará.