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Atletico GO U17 vs Fortaleza U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Atletico GO U17
Atletico GO U17
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Fortaleza U17
Fortaleza U17
6/23/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Atletico GO U1737%
×Draw24%
Fortaleza U1739%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico GO U17
1.47
Fortaleza U17
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

creates per match

Atletico GO U17
0.88
Fortaleza U17
0.83

allows per match

Atletico GO U17
2.19
Fortaleza U17
2.06

finishing

Atletico GO U17+0.00on par
Fortaleza U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 57Under: 4357%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico GO U17 ↓

Fortaleza U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Atletico GO U17 or draw
61%
Atletico GO U17 or Fortaleza U17
76%
Draw or Fortaleza U17
63%

Winning margin

Atletico GO U17 wins by 2+
17%
Fortaleza U17 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Atletico GO U17 1+ goals
77%
Atletico GO U17 2+ goals
43%
Atletico GO U17 3+ goals
18%
Fortaleza U17 1+ goals
78%
Fortaleza U17 2+ goals
44%
Fortaleza U17 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Atletico GO U17 (draw refunded)
49%
Fortaleza U17 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico GO U17 at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

Fortaleza U17 away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico GO U17 attack 0.88 + Fortaleza U17 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.47

Fortaleza U17 attack 0.83 + Atletico GO U17 defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atletico GO U17 scores more
37%
level
24%
Fortaleza U17 scores more
39%

Fortaleza U17 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fortaleza U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro U17: Atletico GO U17 0–2 Fortaleza U17

Fortaleza U17 beat Atletico GO U17 2-0 in Brasileiro U17 on June 23, 2026.