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Fortaleza FC vs Patriotas — Primera A 2018

Fortaleza FC
Fortaleza FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Patriotas
Patriotas
1/25/2024Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 2Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Fortaleza FC50%
×Draw27%
Patriotas22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortaleza FC
1.40
Patriotas
0.83

Fortaleza FC creates 69% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 109 away

creates per match

Fortaleza FC
1.17
Patriotas
0.70

allows per match

Fortaleza FC
0.96
Patriotas
1.63

finishing

Fortaleza FC+0.00on par
Patriotas+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza FC ↓

Patriotas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fortaleza FC or draw
78%
Fortaleza FC or Patriotas
73%
Draw or Patriotas
50%

Winning margin

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+
25%
Patriotas wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals
75%
Fortaleza FC 2+ goals
41%
Fortaleza FC 3+ goals
17%
Patriotas 1+ goals
56%
Patriotas 2+ goals
20%
Patriotas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)
69%
Patriotas (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza FC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.96 · 53 matches

Patriotas away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.63 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza FC attack 1.17 + Patriotas defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

Patriotas attack 0.70 + Fortaleza FC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fortaleza FC scores more
50%
level
27%
Patriotas scores more
22%

Fortaleza FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fortaleza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Fortaleza FC 2–0 Patriotas

Fortaleza FC beat Patriotas 2-0 in Primera A on January 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo in Bogotá, D.C..