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Fortaleza FC vs Patriotas — Primera B 2018

Fortaleza FC
Fortaleza FCadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Patriotas
Patriotas
11/29/2023Primera BPrimera B · Championship - FinalEstadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Fortaleza FC48%
×Draw27%
Patriotas25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortaleza FC
1.44
Patriotas
0.95

Fortaleza FC creates 52% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 52 away

creates per match

Fortaleza FC
1.80
Patriotas
0.90

allows per match

Fortaleza FC
0.99
Patriotas
1.08

finishing

Fortaleza FC+0.00on par
Patriotas+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza FC ↓

Patriotas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Fortaleza FC or draw
75%
Fortaleza FC or Patriotas
73%
Draw or Patriotas
52%

Winning margin

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+
24%
Patriotas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals
76%
Fortaleza FC 2+ goals
42%
Fortaleza FC 3+ goals
18%
Patriotas 1+ goals
61%
Patriotas 2+ goals
25%
Patriotas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)
66%
Patriotas (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza FC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.99 · 107 matches

Patriotas away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.08 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza FC attack 1.80 + Patriotas defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.44

Patriotas attack 0.90 + Fortaleza FC defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fortaleza FC scores more
48%
level
27%
Patriotas scores more
25%

Fortaleza FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fortaleza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortaleza FC vs Patriotas

Fortaleza FC beat Patriotas 1-0 in Primera B on November 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo in Bogotá, D.C..