Fortaleza FC 1–1 Patriotas: Result & Stats

Fortaleza FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Patriotas

S. Navarro 2'

S. Córdoba 34'

4/23/2023

Primera B · Apertura - 14Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Fortaleza FC50%

×Draw26%

Patriotas24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortaleza FCExpected goals in this matchPatriotas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.94

Fortaleza FC

1.48

Patriotas

0.94

Fortaleza FC creates 57% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 52 away

1.89

creates per match

0.90

0.97

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Fortaleza FC

1.89

Patriotas

0.90

allows per match

Fortaleza FC

0.97

Patriotas

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortaleza FC+0.00on par

Patriotas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza FC ↓

Patriotas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Fortaleza FC or draw

76%

Fortaleza FC or Patriotas

74%

Draw or Patriotas

50%

Winning margin

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+

25%

Patriotas wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals

77%

Fortaleza FC 2+ goals

43%

Fortaleza FC 3+ goals

19%

Patriotas 1+ goals

61%

Patriotas 2+ goals

24%

Patriotas 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)

67%

Patriotas (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza FC at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.97 · 97 matches

Patriotas away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.08 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza FC attack 1.89 + Patriotas defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.48

Patriotas attack 0.90 + Fortaleza FC defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fortaleza FC scores more

50%

level

26%

Patriotas scores more

24%

Fortaleza FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fortaleza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

S. Navarro

34'

S. Córdoba

46'

B. Medina← S. Mosquera

46'

J. Hinestroza← J. Bermúdez

52'

A. Alarcon

61'

D. Viáfara← José García

61'

J. Guzmán← N. Rodríguez

63'

J. Andrade

67'

S. Navarro

68'

G. Vargas← A. Moralez

73'

I. Rivas← J. Andrade

82'

F. Banguero← A. Alarcón

82'

J. Fuentes← Y. Salas

82'

J. Mojica← D. Orozco

88'

I. Rivas

Fortaleza

Patriotas

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Oliveros

46'▲B. Medina←▼S. Mosquera

46'▲J. Hinestroza←▼J. Bermúdez

61'▲D. Viáfara←▼José García

61'▲J. Guzmán←▼N. Rodríguez

68'▲G. Vargas←▼A. Moralez

Fortaleza FC substitutes

MedinaHinestrozaViáfaraGuzmánVargasBarreraFlórez

Manager: J. Niño

73'▲I. Rivas←▼J. Andrade

82'▲F. Banguero←▼A. Alarcón

82'▲J. Fuentes←▼Y. Salas

82'▲J. Mojica←▼D. Orozco

Patriotas substitutes

RivasBangueroFuentesMojicaAmayaPreciadoHarrys

Primera B: Fortaleza FC 1–1 Patriotas

Fortaleza FC and Patriotas drew 1-1 in Primera B on April 23, 2023.

Goals: S. Navarro (2'), S. Córdoba (34').

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo in Bogotá, D.C..

Fortaleza FC vs Patriotas — Primera B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera B: Fortaleza FC 1–1 Patriotas