Fortaleza FC 4–1 Leones FC: Result & Stats

Fortaleza FC

FT

4 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Leones FC

A. Parra 37', 17'

J. Arango 32'

R. Lára 9'

F. Navarro 45'

3/2/2019

Primera B · Apertura - 6Estadio Municipal de Cota (Cota)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Fortaleza FC52%

×Draw23%

Leones FC24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortaleza FCExpected goals in this matchLeones FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.13

Fortaleza FC

1.78

Leones FC

1.13

Fortaleza FC creates 58% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 126 away

1.89

creates per match

1.29

0.97

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Fortaleza FC

1.89

Leones FC

1.29

allows per match

Fortaleza FC

0.97

Leones FC

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortaleza FC+0.00on par

Leones FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza FC ↓

Leones FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Fortaleza FC or draw

76%

Fortaleza FC or Leones FC

77%

Draw or Leones FC

48%

Winning margin

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+

29%

Leones FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals

83%

Fortaleza FC 2+ goals

53%

Fortaleza FC 3+ goals

26%

Leones FC 1+ goals

68%

Leones FC 2+ goals

31%

Leones FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)

68%

Leones FC (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza FC at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.97 · 97 matches

Leones FC away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.68 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza FC attack 1.89 + Leones FC defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.78

Leones FC attack 1.29 + Fortaleza FC defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fortaleza FC scores more

52%

level

23%

Leones FC scores more

24%

Fortaleza FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fortaleza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

R. Lára

17'

A. Parra

32'

J. Arango

37'

D. Álvarez← C. Gallego

37'

A. Parra

45'

F. Navarro

52'

W. Cruz← D. Mena

58'

J. Rivas← F. Navarro

63'

J. Andrade← J. Arango

68'

B. Torres← R. Lára

77'

K. Castro← Y. Yepes

Fortaleza

Leones

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Arango

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: G. Barato

63'▲J. Andrade←▼J. Arango

68'▲B. Torres←▼R. Lára

77'▲K. Castro←▼Y. Yepes

Fortaleza FC substitutes

AndradeTorresCastroPalaciosGonzálezPuentesUrrutia

Manager: L. Perea

37'▲D. Álvarez←▼C. Gallego

52'▲W. Cruz←▼D. Mena

58'▲J. Rivas←▼F. Navarro

Leones FC substitutes

ÁlvarezCruzRivasDávilaSotoVélez

Primera B: Fortaleza FC 4–1 Leones FC

Fortaleza FC beat Leones FC 4-1 in Primera B on March 2, 2019.

Goals: R. Lára (9'), A. Parra (17', 37'), J. Arango (32'), F. Navarro (45').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Cota (Cota).

Fortaleza FC vs Leones FC — Primera B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera B: Fortaleza FC 4–1 Leones FC