Fortaleza FC 1–0 Alianza Valledupar: Result & Stats

Fortaleza FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alianza Valledupar

R. D. Rivas Torres 82'

1/17/2026

Primera A · Apertura - 1Estadio Municipal de Cota

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Fortaleza FC37%

×Draw32%

Alianza Valledupar30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortaleza FCExpected goals in this matchAlianza Valledupar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

0.86

Fortaleza FC

0.99

Alianza Valledupar

0.86

Fortaleza FC creates 15% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

0.93

creates per match

0.68

1.04

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Fortaleza FC

0.93

Alianza Valledupar

0.68

allows per match

Fortaleza FC

1.04

Alianza Valledupar

1.04

+0.51scores more than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Fortaleza FC+0.51scores more

Alianza Valledupar+0.07on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza FC ↓

Alianza Valledupar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Fortaleza FC or draw

70%

Fortaleza FC or Alianza Valledupar

68%

Draw or Alianza Valledupar

63%

Winning margin

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+

14%

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals

63%

Fortaleza FC 2+ goals

26%

Fortaleza FC 3+ goals

8%

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

58%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

21%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)

55%

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza FC at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.04 · 9 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.04 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza FC attack 0.93 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.99

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.68 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Fortaleza FC scores more

37%

level

32%

Alianza Valledupar scores more

30%

Fortaleza FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Fortaleza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Silva

Fortaleza FC · G

8.0

Match Events

12'

T. Wilke← J. Herrera

17'

C. Esparragoza

46'

J. Cajares← J. Marulanda

46'

R. D. Rivas Torres← J. Salas

65'

C. Villegas← E. W. Meza Mercado

70'

S. Cuero← M. Pernia

70'

A. Amaya← S. Navarro

70'

F. Pardo← S. A. Aponza Cantonil

74'

L. Pico

82'

R. D. Rivas Torres↳ J. Cajares

85'

Y. Londono← J. E. Perez Balcazar

85'

J. Osorio← C. Lucumi

85'

J. Valoyes← C. Esparragoza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FortalezaAlianza

Overview

59%Possession41%

11Total Shots10

2Corners2

13Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots10

6On Target2

4Off Target5

1Blocked3

4Inside Box3

7Outside Box7

Passing

59%Possession41%

515Total Passes352

448Accurate Passes293

87%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

4Offsides3