Alianza Valledupar 1–1 Fortaleza FC: Result & Stats

Alianza Valledupar

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Fortaleza FC

A. Rentería 49'

S. Navarro 32'

9/8/2024

Primera A · Clausura - 9Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Alianza Valledupar40%

×Draw27%

Fortaleza FC33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza ValleduparExpected goals in this matchFortaleza FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.17

Alianza Valledupar

1.31

Fortaleza FC

1.17

Alianza Valledupar creates 12% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

1.31

creates per match

1.11

1.23

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.31

Fortaleza FC

1.11

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.23

Fortaleza FC

1.31

-0.40scores less than expected

finishing

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

Alianza Valledupar-0.40scores less

Fortaleza FC+0.22scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Fortaleza FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw

67%

Alianza Valledupar or Fortaleza FC

73%

Draw or Fortaleza FC

60%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

18%

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

73%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

38%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

14%

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals

69%

Fortaleza FC 2+ goals

33%

Fortaleza FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

55%

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.23 · 11 matches

Fortaleza FC away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.31 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.31 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Fortaleza FC attack 1.11 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more

40%

level

27%

Fortaleza FC scores more

33%

Alianza Valledupar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

S. Navarro

Fortaleza FC · M

7.9

Match Events

6'

8'

14'

20'

32'

45+1'

46'

R. Manjarrés← S. Orozco

46'

J. Pérez← R. Colpa

49'

A. Rentería↳ E. Batalla

58'

J. Díaz← J. Salas

58'

Juan Camilo Castillo← C. Hinestroza

58'

I. Anderson← H. Palacios

60'

Jhon Pérez

68'

M. Martínez← A. Rentería

69'

J. Muñoz← E. Batalla

69'

Y. Díaz← A. Moralez

72'

Iván Anderson

89'

M. Gil← E. Torres

90+10'

90+11'

90+16'

90+15'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaFortaleza

Overview

44%Possession56%

15Total Shots13

6Corners1

13Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots13

5On Target3

6Off Target6

4Blocked4

9Inside Box4

6Outside Box9

Passing

44%Possession56%

322Total Passes422

231Accurate Passes345

72%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls15

3Yellow Cards7

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1

Primera A: Alianza Valledupar 1–1 Fortaleza FC

Alianza Valledupar and Fortaleza FC drew 1-1 in Primera A on September 8, 2024.

Goals: S. Navarro (32'), A. Rentería (49').

Fortaleza FC controlled possession (56%) and registered 13 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau in Valledupar.

Alianza Valledupar vs Fortaleza FC — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Alianza Valledupar 1–1 Fortaleza FC