Fort Lauderdale United 2–0 Weston: Result & Stats

Fort Lauderdale United

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Weston

5/22/2025

USL League Two · Southern Conference - 3FTL UTD Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fort Lauderdale United68%

×Draw21%

Weston11%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fort Lauderdale UnitedExpected goals in this matchWeston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.61

Fort Lauderdale United

1.90

Weston

0.61

Fort Lauderdale United creates 211% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

2.00

creates per match

0.90

0.33

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Fort Lauderdale United

2.00

Weston

0.90

allows per match

Fort Lauderdale United

0.33

Weston

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fort Lauderdale United+0.00on par

Weston+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fort Lauderdale United ↓

Weston →

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–015%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fort Lauderdale United or draw

89%

Fort Lauderdale United or Weston

79%

Draw or Weston

32%

Winning margin

Fort Lauderdale United wins by 2+

42%

Weston wins by 2+

Team goals

Fort Lauderdale United 1+ goals

85%

Fort Lauderdale United 2+ goals

56%

Fort Lauderdale United 3+ goals

29%

Weston 1+ goals

46%

Weston 2+ goals

13%

Weston 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Fort Lauderdale United (draw refunded)

86%

Weston (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Fort Lauderdale United at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Weston away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Fort Lauderdale United attack 2.00 + Weston defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Weston attack 0.90 + Fort Lauderdale United defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 68%?"

Fort Lauderdale United scores more

68%

level

21%

Weston scores more

11%

Fort Lauderdale United at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Fort Lauderdale United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff